Unfortunately, the converse is also true. Those who underestimate how able they are can be seen as having less ability than is actually the case.
The research studied 72 individuals on a course. Only 11 were accurate in their assessment of their own ability (in other words, their final marks confirmed their predictions). 29 students were over-confident and 32 were under-confident.
The trouble was there was a distinct correlation between the grades students predicted for themselves and the grades others predicted for them. So… students predicted success for their over-confident colleagues even though this proved not to be the eventual outcome.
Even worse, these erroneous impressions of the likely success rate of the over-confident were the same six weeks into the course as they were at the beginning—so even getting to know each other made no difference.
Worryingly… the overconfident types were shown as more likely to take risks. So, when businesses reward the most self-deceiving rather than the most accomplished individuals, not only are they progressing the less able but also the most reckless.
Think of the implications of this.
Over-confident, less able and more reckless people at the top of major companies, the armed forces and other key institutions.
I see it all the time… and you’ve only got to look at the news to see the problems it causes.
Tags: actual ability assessment of their own ability distinct correlation erroneous impressions final marks less ability likely success most accomplished most reckless most self-deceiving overconfident over-confident over-confident predicted success predictions research rewarded disproportionately take risks under-confident